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In the broadcast today: How will the Non-Farm Payrolls Impact the USD? Ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report, we examine the consensus forecasts for the outcome of this crucial economic data and ponder its implications for the Fed's monetary policy and the future fate of the USD, we note this morning's broad USD weakening and analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, we take a look at the USD/JPY pair's bounce off support near 15-year lows, we highlight the market's reaction to the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index, the Australian GDP, the Euro-zone and the U.K. Manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing Index, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Standard Bank and Barclays Capital, and prepare for the trading session ahead. 

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In the broadcast today: What Should We Make of the EUR & USD Volatility? As uncertainty and risk aversion continue to be the dominating forces for the markets, we examine this morning's price behavior of the EUR vs. USD in search for signs that could signal the next move for the two majors, we analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD currency pair, we note the new all-time low for the EUR against the CHF, we explore the weakness of the GBP vs. USD, we take a close look at the higher-yielding commodity currencies: CAD, AUD and NZD, we highlight the market's reaction to the Japanese Industrial Production, the Australian Retail Sales, the Euro-zone HICP and Unemployment Rate, the U.K. Mortgage Approvals, and the U.S. Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon and BNP Paribas, and prepare for the trading session ahead. 

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GBP/USD Reversal Underway

Posted by: faithmight in trendtechnicalGBPUSDdailybearanalysis on

faithmight
Cable opened the new trading week working on the quarter from 1.5500 to 1.5750. At the market open Sunday evening, price found support at the 1.5500 large quarter point and major half point when prices fell to a low of 1.5506 before bouncing to reverse and rally. Acting bullish, the GBP/USD rallied to the end of the hesitation zone above 1.5500 major half point at 1.5575 to the pip. But price was unable to go higher and reversed back to the preceding large quarter point at 1.5500 and then broke below.
 
GBPUSD daily August 31 2010 

When the trading week opened, the GBP/USD was in a correction wave of the reverse-trigger bearish wave on the daily chart. Price had to make a lower high than 1.5596 in order to maintain the bearish trend. The high at 1.5575 is in fact a lower high. As prices headed lower and broke below 1.5500 to the day's low at 1.5324 it set up a 2nd bearish progressive wave on the daily chart.
 
The bearish price move broke major midterm support level at 1.5348 which was the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 2nd bullish wave on the weekly chart. Below this level is 1.5300, the whole number preceding the large quarter point at 1.5250 and then 1.5250, the large quarter point itself.
 
GBPUSD hourly chart August 31 2010 
 
Looking at the hourly chart, after making that new low, prices corrected but have found resistance at 1.5348, former-support-turned-resistance level. Price continues to remain below the half point at 1.5375, showing signs of continued weakness in cable.

Price has moved nicely in accordance to the 3-day rule of The Quarters Theory already moving within 1 small quarter of  the whole number preceding the large quarter point at 1.5300 in the first 24 hours of trading. Two days remain to complete the quarter to 1.5250.
 
Fundamentally, the GBP remains weak as economic data points to benign inflation in the UK. As long as inflation continues to soften, the Bank of England is in no hurry to raise interest rates especially with the economy still as fragile as it is.  And that is GBP bearish. The US economy also remains weak but the USD benefits as a safe haven currency during times of risk aversion. It seems the market has returned to trading risk now that the global economy shows signs of weakness. And as such, weak US economic data actually strengthens the USD.
 
The GBP/USD did stage a tremendous rally when the laggard UK economy showed signs of robustness as the US was beginning to weaken. Now that weakness has spread to the rest of the world and is beginning to creep into UK data. Expect the GBP/USD to continue to loose ground and weaken even to the major large quarter point at 1.5000. That level will be a major psychological level that may signify a fundamental shift has occurred again in the markets and resume the long term bear trend. 

In the broadcast today: Are the JPY and CHF Candidates for Intervention? In the aftermath of the Bank of Japan's emergency meeting, we focus on the JPY and CHF and explore the potential for currency market intervention by the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, we analyze the latest trend developments with the USD/JPY and EUR/CHF currency pairs, we note the renewed weakness of the EUR against the currency majors and ponder the future of the EUR/USD exchange rate, we take a look at the GBP after the revised U.K. economic growth forecast by the British Chamber of Commerce, we highlight the market's reaction to the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, the Euro-zone Economic Sentiment, and the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, we discuss new forecasts from Commerzbank and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead. 

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In the broadcast today: USD, EUR and JPY New Trading Week Outlook. Ahead of the new trading week, we explore how the important economic reports scheduled for release throughout next week would impact the USD, EUR, JPY and other major currencies, we list the Top 10 economic events that will move the markets, we examine some of the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, we continue to monitor the USD/JPY pair following another series of verbal intervention attempts from Japanese officials, we highlight the market's reaction to the Japanese CPI and Unemployment Rate, the U.K. GDP, and the U.S. GDP and Consumer Sentiment, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon and Mizuho Bank, and prepare for the busy trading week ahead. 

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Aug. 27, 2010 (Allthingsforex.com) – The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report will take the center stage in the week ahead as investors anxiously wait to find out if the private sector of the U.S. economy would lose jobs in August for the first time this year.   

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a list of the Top 10 spotlight economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to. 

1.    USD- U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Fed because it measures a variable basket of goods and services, as opposed to the CPI-Consumer Price Index which measures a fixed basket of goods and services, Mon., Aug. 30, 8:30 am, ET.

The core PCE Index is expected to show a slight increase in inflationary pressures by 0.1% in August from 0.0% in July, while personal spending rises by 0.4% from 0.0% in the previous month.

2.    CAD- Canada GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Aug. 31, 8:30 am, ET.

Canada’s economy could see faster growth in August by 0.2% m/m from the 0.1% m/m reading in July.

3.    USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tues., Aug. 31, 10:00 am, ET.

Despite of the high unemployment, the consensus forecasts point to an increase in consumer confidence to 51.3 from 50.4 but, given the current deteriorating economic conditions, unexpected decline in the index would not be a major shocker. 

4.    AUD- Australia GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Aug. 31, 9:30 pm, ET.

The revised estimate of the Australian GDP should confirm the expectations for faster economic growth in Q2 2010 by up to 0.9% q/q from 0.5% in the first quarter.   

5.    USD- U.S. ADP-Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a preliminary estimate for the outcome of the monthly non-farm payrolls, Wed., Sep. 1, 8:15 am, ET.

There is a division among the forecasters for the outcome of this important report, with the less optimistic ones expecting the private sector of the U.S. economy to lose up to 14,000 jobs- the first loss for U.S. companies in 2010. On the other hand, even the most optimistic forecasts point to slower jobs creation of up to 20 K jobs in August from 42 K in July. 

6.    USD- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, where a reading above or below 50 is the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction, Wed., Sep. 1, 10:00 am, ET.

The manufacturing sector, which has been the leader of the U.S. economic recovery, could register another month of slower growth with the index pulling back to 53.6 from 55.5 in May. 

7.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Thurs., Sep. 2, 5:00 am, ET. 

The Euro-zone GDP revision should confirm that the economy grew by 1.0% q/q in Q2 2010, as shown by the preliminary estimate. 

8.    EUR- European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Sep. 2, 7:45 am, ET.

In the midst of a global slowdown and with the sovereign debt problems in the Euro-zone not completely resolved yet, the European Central Bank would not be in a position to raise rates until next year. It is likely that the ECB monetary policy will remain accommodative. Especially interesting at this ECB meeting will be to see if policy makers would follow the footsteps of the Fed and the Bank of Japan and consider additional monetary stimulus. The EUR could come under pressure if the ECB opens the door to further quantitative easing.  

9.    USD- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation Report, one of the most important indicators of economic health, measuring the number of new jobs created or lost in the world’s largest economy, Fri., Sep. 3, 8:30 am, ET.

This main spotlight event of the week will have the potential to disappoint investors, especially if the private sector of the U.S. economy loses jobs in August for the first time in 2010. The consensus forecasts point to slower jobs creation by U.S. companies, with private payrolls expected to add 44 K- a lesser amount than the 71 K jobs created in July. The non-farm payrolls are forecasted to show the U.S. economy losing 106 K to 120 K jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 9.6% from 9.5% in July.   

10.     USD- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions in the services industries: agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade, Fri., Sep. 3, 10:00 am, ET.   

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index could expose more signs of U.S. economic slowdown with activity in the services industries retreating to 53.6 from a previous reading of 54.3.

 


In the broadcast today: USD & JPY Intervention Watch Continues. With the USD bouncing off its new 15-year low against the JPY but still below the 85 Yen mark, we continue to monitor the latest verbal intervention attempts from Japanese officials and explore what could be some of the tools that could be utilized by the Bank of Japan to weaken its currency, we analyze the latest trend developments with the USD/JPY currency pair, we follow up on the price corrections in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, we note some of the early signs of a slowdown in Australia that could have a negative impact on the AUD, we keep an eye on the EUR trading near all-time lows vs. CHF, we highlight the market's reaction to the Euro-zone Consumer Sentiment, the U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, and the U.S. Jobless Claims, we discuss new forecasts from Barclays Capital and Bank of New York-Mellon, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

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In the broadcast today: Are EUR & USD Entering a New Phase of the Debt Crisis? As equities and risk appetite continue to deteriorate, we examine the early warning signs of what looks like the next phase of the global debt crisis and explore its potential impact on the EUR and the USD, we analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, we follow up on the bearish breakout in the USD/JPY pair as the USD bounces off the new 15-year lows against the JPY, we note the newly-established all-time low for the EUR vs. CHF, we highlight the market's reaction to the Japanese Trade Balance, the German IFO Business Sentiment survey, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales, we discuss new forecasts from Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

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In the broadcast today: What's Next for the USD, EUR and JPY? In the aftermath of the ugly U.S. housing market report, we ponder what the future may have in store for the currency majors and interview Mr. Cliff Wachtel, Chief Market Strategist at Ava FX, on his outlook of the USD, EUR, JPY and GBP, we analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, we examine the bearish breakout in the USD/JPY pair as the USD reaches new 15-year lows against the JPY, we highlight the market's reaction to the verbal intervention attempts from Japanese officials, the German GDP, the Euro-zone Industrial New Orders, and the U.S. Existing Home Sales, we discuss new forecasts from Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York-Mellon and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

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In the broadcast today: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY Quiet before the Storm? In a day light on economic data, we focus on the USD, EUR, GBP and JPY ahead of a sequence of crucial economic reports that could serve as catalysts for significant price moves at the end of the summer, we analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs, we continue to monitor the USD/JPY pair which is still stuck in its recent range, we highlight the market's reaction to the Australian election, the meeting of the Japanese Prime Minister and the Bank of Japan's Governor, the U.K. Business Confidence, and the Euro-zone Composite PMI, we discuss new forecasts from JPMorgan-Chase, Bank of New York-Mellon and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

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